2021 Holiday Shopping by the Numbers

2021 Holiday Shopping by the Numbers

Holidays mean plenty of opportunities for shopping, whether you plan a Valentine’s Day office party, scary Halloween costumes, or Christmas decorations to light up the night. In 2021 amid the COVID-19 recovery, shoppers have gradually felt more comfortable heading back to brick-and-mortar stores. Of course, ecommerce hasn’t gone anywhere and remains hugely popular. This guide looks at holiday shopping stats, focusing on the 2021 winter holidays that begin with Thanksgiving.

Table of Contents

• Holidays that shoppers like the most
• Winter holidays 2021
• Thanksgiving
• Halloween
• Back to school/back to college
• Independence Day
• Mother’s Day
• Easter
• Valentine’s Day
• Wrapping Up (and two final Christmas stats!)
• References and Endnotes

Holidays that shoppers like the most

Christmas is the shopping period that consumers most look forward to

1. Christmas holidays: 30%¹
2. Black Friday: 23%
3. Amazon Prime Days: 21%
4. Any day I can afford it: 19%
5. Cyber Monday: 17%
6. Any day shopping is my favorite: 13%
7. Mother’s Day: 10%
8. Easter: 9%
9. Labor Day: 8%
10. Spring Shopping: 8%
11. Back to School: 8%
12. Father's Day: 7%

No surprises here, really. Now here comes a potential eye-opener. Back-to-college is more popular than the winter holidays if you base popularity on the amount of spending per person/household involved.

Back-to-college is top shopping holiday by spending, says National Retail Federation

Top 5 shopping holidays and average spend expected per person²

Other holidays with significant spending per person include these:

Cyber Monday is a top shopping day and perhaps the most popular.

Cyber Monday is #1 shopping holiday by share of holiday shoppers

In a Deloitte survey, shoppers were asked on which of the following days they are likely to shop.³

1. Cyber Monday: 29% share
2. Black Friday, 24%
3. Small Business Saturday, 14%
4. Prime Day, 13%
5. Thanksgiving Day, 8%
6. Singles’ Day, 3%
7. None of the above, 47%

• People who shopped on Prime Day spent $344 on average for that event and $1,874 on average for all of their holiday shopping.
• Black Friday shoppers spent $410 on that specific day and $1,483 on all holiday season shopping.
• People who don't specifically shop on event days spend $1,291 on all holiday shopping.

Across the generations, Cyber Monday has replaced Black Friday as the day that shoppers rely on for discounts³

Cyber Monday had the most ecommerce sales of the 5 bundled days in 2019 and 2020

Of course, COVID-19 in 2020 had an impact on the number of stores open and the amount of shoppers who showed up.⁴

Cyber Monday 2019: $9.4 billion Cyber Monday 2020: $10.8 billion

Black Friday 2019: $7.4 billion Black Friday 2020: $9 billion

Thanksgiving 2019: $5.1 billion Thanksgiving 2020: $4.2 billion

Thanksgiving weekend Sunday 2019: $3.8 billion Thanksgiving weekend Sunday 2020: $4.7 billion

Small Business Saturday 2019: $3.6 billion Small Business Saturday 2020: $4.7 billion

Now, let’s take a deeper look at predictions and stats for the 2021 winter holidays that include Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday.

Winter Holidays 2021

Klarna, a company that offers consumers flexible payment options for purchases, surveyed more than 24,000 shoppers ahead of the winter holiday season in 2021. Among the insights are these:⁵

Black Friday may be the biggest sales day of 2021

• 50% of shoppers plan to shop on this day
• 56% plan online purchases

In-store shoppers in 2021 favor big-box retailers

In 2021, 62 percent of in-store holiday shoppers plan to head to big-box retailers. About 30 percent will visit small businesses. Planned in-person holiday shopping locations include these:

1. Big box retailers: 62%
2. Department stores: 37%
3. Shopping malls: 34%
4. Small businesses: 30%
5. Discount stores: 30%
6. National retailers: 27%
7. Warehouse stores: 27%
8. Resale or consignment shops: 14%

(Walmart and Target are examples of big-box retailers.)

Many consumers plan to spend more and earlier

• 80% will keep buying online
• 40% plan to buy earlier in the year than they did previously
• 34% see themselves spending more
• 1 in 2 shoppers intends to spend $250 to $1,000 on gifts

Social media drives sales

• 78% of Gen Z will purchase products after seeing them on social media
• 79% of Millennials will
• 55% of Gen X will

Speaking of the generations...

• 69% of Millennials will check out livestream shopping
• 53% of Gen Z will treat themselves with a gift from their wish list

Flexible payment options make the season extra festive

• 75% of Gen Z would like interest-free payment options or other flexible ways to pay
• 76% of Millennials would
• 60% of Gen X would
• 23% of Baby Boomers would

Microsoft’s holiday retail insights report for 2021 tracks with what Klarna found. For example, many shoppers started early and are seeking more flexible payment options.⁶

Among respondents in May 2021 answering, “When do you intend to start your holiday shopping?"

• 20% already started
• 23% planned to start that spring
• 25% intended to shop during the summer
• 22% saw themselves starting in October or November
• 7% would start specifically on Black Friday/Cyber Monday
• 3% plan to shop starting in mid-December

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) grows more popular

• 179% increase in BNPL-related search volume from 2020 to 2021

The report also indicates that 2021 will be more similar to 2019 than 2020.

2021 (COVID recovery year) seems more correlated with 2019 than 2020, based on Mother's Day and earlier gifting holidays.

• 0.94 correlation, 2021 and 2019
• 0.85 correlation, 2021 and 2020
• Search volume is trending between pre-COVID (2019) and COVID (2020) levels
• BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) remains very popular with consumers.
  • In 2021, BOPIS search traffic is 555% higher than it was in pre-COVID 2020 (January through March)
  • BOPIS search volume as of mid-July was similar to 2020 COVID levels

7 categories that grew substantially and unexpectedly in 2020 due to COVID effects should decline year-over-year in 2021 (data based on year-over-year clicks)

Now for the opposite! The following five categories dropped in 2020 and should see growth in 2021, based on year-over-year clicks.

Travel-related gifts or experiences are more relevant in 2021 than in 2020

• As of May 2021, 26% of shoppers planned to travel over the holidays. 42% said they might, while 32% said they would not.
• In September 2020, 21% planned holiday travel, 26% possibly did, and 52% had a firm no against travel.

More shoppers seek sustainable gifts

37%: Sustainability-related average search traffic index growth since 2019 52% of shoppers bought eco-friendly holiday gifts in the past year

Other stats from various surveys and sources bear out general observations we touched on, for example, showing that Black Friday shopping is less popular than it used to be. (Granted, Klarna does say it may be the biggest shopping day of 2021.)

Noticeable drop in Black Friday shopping

Percentage of consumers planning to do most of their holiday shopping on Black Friday⁷

• 2015: 59%
• 2016: 51%
• 2017: 35%
• 2018: 37%
• 2019: 36%
• 2020: 36%

Why consumers avoided brick-and-mortar Black Friday shopping, as of September 2020⁸

• Too many crowds: 60.8%
• Health/safety concerns: 57.1%
• Not worth the hassle: 48.4%
• Long lines: 40.9%
• Better deals online: 25.7%
• Parking issues: 20.5%
• Financial reasons: 16.9%
• Not enough time: 9.3%
• Other: 4.6%

PwC published a report similar to Klarna’s and Microsoft’s. Main stats include these:⁹

Top 5 influences affecting holiday spending

• Price 75%
• Convenience 62%
• Delivery speed 48%
• Friend and family recommendations 38%
• Free return options 35%

Good news for local and contactless options

• 56% of shoppers plan to step up buying from local, independent stores
• 55% plan to shop at fewer stores than they usually do
• 53% will frequent stores with loyalty programs
• 46% plan to use contactless options
• 44% will take advantage of curbside pickup
  • 35% did in 2020
  • 23% did in 2019
• 92% say brand trust matters, a noticeable increase over the 70% from previous years

2021 holiday season to involve more travel, spending vs. 2020

• $1,447: Average spending per consumer on gifts, travel, and entertainment
  • Represents 20% increase over 2020 and 13% over pre-pandemic 2019
  • $767, gifts
  • $461, travel
  • $218, entertainment
• $1,646: Average spending expected per Millennial
  • Mature millennials, $1,815 (35 to 39 years old)
  • Core millennials, $1,662 (30 to 34 years old)
  • Young millennials, $1,363 (26 to 29 years old)
• $1,594: Gen X
• $1,510: Greatest generation
• $1,347: Boomers
• $1,154: Gen Z
• $2,733: Expected spending for consumers with household incomes of $150,000 or more

Consumers will spend $442 on themselves during the 2021 holiday season

• Increase of 48% from 2020
• Increase of 28% from 2019

Here are a few more stats from Deloitte.

2021 should build on 2020 holiday sales growth¹⁰

• 7% to 9%: Expected 2021 holiday retail sales increase
  • 5.8%: 2020 holiday sales growth
  • $1.19 trillion: 2020 retail holiday sales
• $1.28 trillion to $1.3 trillion: Expected holiday sales from November to January
• 11% to 15%: Predicted ecommerce growth for the 2021-2022 season
• $210 billion to $218 billion: Predicted ecommerce sales

Consumers want free shipping and better prices³

• 85% of Deloitte holiday retail survey respondents say free shipping during holiday season is more important than fast shipping
• 15% prefer fast shipping

Better prices the #1 driver for holiday shoppers to try new stores

Why consumers in the Deloitte survey tried a new store or online retailer in 2020

1. Better prices 62%
2. Unique products 44%
3. Coupons or discounts 44%
4. Stock availability 43%
5. Greater selection 42%
6. Friend or family recommendations 40%
7. New or different types of gifts 39%
8. Better or cheaper shipping policies 38%
9. Positive reviews about the store or site 37%
10. Pleasant shopping experience 32%
11. COVID-19 safety precautions 32%

Top gifts to receive

1. Money (cash or check), 43%
2. Gift cards, 42%
3. Clothing, 37%
4. Books, 37%
5. Restaurant (gift card or in-person meal), 35%
6. Beverages, 30%
7. Jewelry, 27%
8. Health and beauty products, 26%
9. Pet toys, decor, accessories, 15%
10. Toys, games, dolls (not including video or computer games), 14%

Top gifts to give

1. Gift cards, 48%
2. Clothing, 43%
3. Toys, games, dolls (not including video or computer games), 40%
4. Books, 36%
5. Health and beauty products, 29%
6. Restaurant (gift card or in-person meal), 28%
7. Money (cash or check), 27%
8. Beverages, 27%
9. Pet toys, decor, accessories, 24%
10. Jewelry, 24%

Younger shoppers more willing to pay extra for sustainable, socially friendly products

• 82% of Gen Z would pay extra
• 76% of Millennials
• 63% of Gen X
• 54% of Baby Boomers
• 48% of seniors
• 65% overall

Influencers impact holiday shopping a bit

72% of shoppers who follow influencers say that social influencers affect less than a quarter of holiday shopping

• 36% of all shoppers are affected by review comments on websites and mobile apps
• 26% by product reviews online or on blogs
• 14% by live video of the product being used
• 10% by short video clips (14 seconds or less)
• 10% by unboxing or review videos starring social media influencers
• 5% by live question and answer sessions
• 3% by celebrity picks or lists
• 46% of shoppers don't follow influencers

Amazon gets many holiday shoppers’ dollars¹¹

• Almost $1 of every $5 spent during Cyber Weekend 2020 went to Amazon, especially Gen X and Boomer dollars
• Nearly 35% of U.S. sales were online

• Almost a quarter of Walmart’s sales were online
• 74% of lower-income households (earning less than $40,000 a year) shopped physically at brick-and-mortar stores vs. 62% of higher-income shoppers (earning more than $80,000 a year)
  • Walmart was tops among the lower-income set, both physically and digitally

Cyber Monday ecommerce spending keeps rising¹²

• 2014: $2.6 billion
• 2015: $3.1 billion
• 2016: $3.7 billion
• 2017: $4.7 billion
• 2018: $6 billion
• 2019: $7.9 billion
• 2020: $9.8 billion

Now, let’s take a peek at other holidays.

Thanksgiving

Folks prefer homemade over store-bought pies (whether they are serving the pies or eating them)¹³

• Homemade, totally from scratch pies: 37%
• Homemade with some store-bought elements: 32%
• 26%: totally store-bought pies
• 3%: don't eat pie
• 2%: don't know

Halloween

Costumes top Halloween spending¹⁴

1. Costumes: $3.3 billion
2. Decorations: $3.2 billion
3. Candy: $3 billion
4. Greeting cards: $0.7 billion

• Average spend expected per consumer in 2021: $102.74 ($10 more than per-consumer planned spending last year)
• 2021 should see an all-time high of $10.14 billion Halloween spending, up from $8.05 billion in 2020

 

• $149.69: Average Halloween spend for households with children
• $73.57: Households without children
• 45% of consumers plan to start Halloween shopping in September
• 39% will in the first two weeks of October

Back to School and Back to College

Electronics in high demand among K-12, college students¹⁵

• K-12, $848.90 average spending per family ($59 increase from 2020)
• $37.1 billion total spending estimated, a record, and an increase from $33.9 billion in 2020
  • Electronics: $295.65
  • Clothing: $253.46
  • Shoes: $161.05

 

• College students/families, $1,200.32 average spending per household, up $141 over last year
• $71 billion total spending estimated, a record and up from 2020's $67.7 billion
  • Electronics: $306.41
  • Dorm/apartment furnishings: $164.38
  • Clothing: $158.98

Independence Day

Cookout-related purchases are popular

• $80.54 per-person spending on food/food items¹⁶
• Estimated 29% of July 4 celebrants purchased items in addition to food
• 33% of celebrants planned fireworks or a community celebration

Mother’s Day

Top considerations for Mother's Day gifts in 2021

• Unique or different gift: 44%¹⁷
• Gift to create special memories: 40%
• Convenient gift for gift-giver: 25%
• Cheaper or cost-effective gift: 15%

We spend more on Mother’s Day gifts now

Average estimated spending on jewelry for Mother's Day per capita (per person)

• $47.76 in 2021
• $35.21 in 2015
• $20.07 in 2009

Average estimated spending on gift cards

• $21.91 in 2021
• $18.20 in 2015
• $13.19 in 2009

Estimated total expenditure (in billion U.S. dollars)

• $28.1 billion in 2021
• $21.17 billion in 2015
• $14.1 billion in 2009

Greeting cards and flowersare popular Mother’s Day gifts

Estimated consumer spending

1. Greeting cards 72%
2. Flowers 68%
3. Special outing 49%
4. Gift cards 47%
5. Clothing/accessories 40%
6. Jewelry 35%
7. Housewares/gardening tools 26%
8. Personal services 25%
9. Books/CDs 23%
10. Electronics 20%
11. Other 27%

Consumers 25 to 34 years old are most interested in gifting subscription boxes

• 18-24: 50% interested
• 25-34: 60% interested
• 35-44: 52% interested
• 45-54: 33% interested
• 55-64: 19% interested
• 65+: 8% interested

Easter

The Easter Bunny brings good tidings for the economy¹⁸

• $179.70 estimated spending per consumer for Easter 2021, highest in National Retail Federation survey history
• $21 billion total spending for 2021

Most common Easter purchases

• Candy: 89%
• Food: 88%
• Gifts: 64%
• Greeting cards: 50%
• Decorations: 48%

Valentine’s Day

More couples celebrated Valentine’s Day at home in 2021 amid COVID-19 recovery

• $164.76 average estimated spending in 2021¹⁹
• $196.31 average estimated spending in 2020, just before the pandemic seriously started to affect the U.S.
• $21.8 billion total spending in 2021
• About 52% of U.S. adults celebrated in 2021

74% said COVID-19 would directly impact their celebration plans. For example, just 24% of survey respondents said they would celebrate with an evening out, the lowest-ever percentage in the history of the NRF survey.

Candy is the most popular gift to give

• Candy: 54% would gift
• Greeting cards: 44%
• Flowers: 36%
• Evening out: 24%
• Gift card: 21%
• Clothing: 20%
• Jewelry: 18%
• Other: 12%

Who we spend money on

• Spouse/significant other: $11.7 billion
• Other family members: $3.6 billion
• Friends: $1.6 billion
• Children's classmates and teachers: $1.4 billion
• Pets: $1.3 billion
• Co-workers: $1.1 billion
• Other: $1 billion

Wrapping Up (and Two Final Christmas Stats!)

Holiday retail sales from 2000 to 2020 have skyrocketed. For instance, U.S. sales in 2000 were $399.53 billion; in 2010, they were $528.8 billion; and in 2020, they were $755.3 billion, almost double the sales in 2000.²⁰

We obviously love to shop, and many of us take advantage of discounts on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Holidays remain one of the best opportunities to show the people in our lives how much we value them, and, hey, we like treating ourselves, too!

If you’re looking for different online stores to try this year, check out this stat, a ranking of the top digital stores for Christmas gifts.

Percentage of consumers who prefer these online stores for buying Christmas gifts²¹

1. Amazon: 91%
2. Walmart.com: 52%
3. Target.com: 38%
4. Ebay: 24%
5. Bestbuy.com: 23%
6. Apple: 20%
7. Kohls.com: 17%
8. Macys.com: 12%
9. Chewy.com: 9%
10. Costco.com: 9%
11. Homedepot.com: 8%
12. Gap.com: 6%
13. Wayfair.com: 5%
14. Lowes.com: 5%
15. Kroger.com: 4%
16. Qvc.com: 4%
17. Huckberry.com: 3%
18. Other: 11%
19. Don't know: 2%

Now for the final stat on where consumers buy Christmas gifts.²²

• Online stores: 63%
• Department stores: 54%
• Christmas markets: 27%
• Arts and crafts markets: 18%
• Stationary stores: 15%
• Flea markets: 14%
• Other: 10%
• None of the above: 4%

Happy holidays, and stay safe shopping!

References and Endnotes

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   seasonal-trends
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8. Tighe, D. (2021, Oct. 19). Why U.S. Shoppers Do Not Plan to Go to Physical Stores on Black Friday 2020. Statista. Retrieved Oct. 20, 2021, from https://www.statista.com/
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16. Independence Day. (n.d.). National Retail Federation. Retrieved Oct. 20, 2021, from https://nrf.com/topics/holiday-and-seasonal-trends/independence-day
17. Mother’s Day Data Center. (n.d.). National Retail Federation. Retrieved Oct. 20, 2021, from https://nrf.com/insights/holiday-and-seasonal-trends/mothers-day/mothers-day-data-center
18. Easter. (n.d.). National Retail Federation. Retrieved Oct. 20, 2021, from https://nrf.com/topics/holiday-and-seasonal-trends/easter
19. Valentine’s Day. (n.d.). National Retail Federation. Retrieved Oct. 20, 2021, from https://nrf.com/topics/holiday-and-seasonal-trends/valentines-day
20. Tighe, D. (2021, Feb. 16). Holiday Retail Sales in the United States 2000-2020. Statista. Retrieved Oct. 20, 2021, from https://www.statista.com/
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21. Kunst, Alexander. (2020, Dec. 14). Preferred Online Stores for Christmas Gift Shopping in the United States 2020. Statista. Retrieved Oct. 20, 2021, from https://www.statista.com/
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